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La Société Royale d'Economie Politique de Belgique à l'honneur de vous convier à la conférence sur le thème :

Prix de l’énergie, inflation et indexation automatique : quelles conséquences pour la compétitivité et le pouvoir d’achat en Belgique

Intervenant(s) :
Grégory de Walque, Senior Economist at National Bank of Belgium
Philippe Ledent , Senior Economist at ING Belgium
Jelloul Mohammed,

The world economy has entered a new cycle of expensive energy whose length and intensity will be driven by the post-Covid recovery and the tensions with Russia in the short-medium run, and by the transition towards a carbon-light economy in the medium-long run.
The Belgian economy suffers from a twin structural handicap to face such energy price shocks:
1. an observed quicker and stronger transmission of wholesale energy prices to the end-users;
2. the institutionalized automatic wage indexation mechanism which amplifies the wage-price spiral.
In this note, we simulate the recently observed unexpected hikes in energy prices with the multi-country macro model of the NBB, BEMGIE (Belgian Economy in a Macro General and International Equilibrium model). The exercise shows that each specificity is responsible for a downward amplification of the economic activity reaction (GDP) of the same magnitude, though through different channels:
1. the first one weights more on the purchasing power of the households and on the domestic demand;
2. the second affects more specifically competitiveness, both on domestic and foreign markets.
Finally, both handicaps are self-reinforcing through second round effects.

Date et lieu :
Jeudi 1 janvier de 12h00- 14h00 - Fondation Universitaire Stichting,
Egmontstraat 11 - 1000 Brussel
Fondation Universitaire
11, Rue d’Egmont - 1000 Bruxelles

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